Discounted cash flow (DCF) is a common method for valuing businesses. However, DCF is a poor method for valuing digital businesses. This is because digital businesses are characterized by rapid growth, unpredictable cash flows, and network effects. As a result, the assumptions underlying DCF are not met, and the resulting valuations are often inaccurate.
I have been expanding from digital strategy to digital valuation as a topic. I recently summarized (briefly) how I do valuation long hand (i.e., pen and paper) with one form. That was in: Valuation Like Warren Buffett in 1 Slide (Asia Tech Strategy – Daily Lesson / Update) But the relevant slide from that article […]
Chinese recruiting company Kanzhun has gone public on the Nasdaq. It runs a pretty interesting recruiting platform called Boss Zhipin. An Introduction to Boss Zhipin Boss Zhipin is a marketplace platform for recruiting. So this is a pretty standard platform for connecting job-seekers and companies (and recruiting agencies). In 2020, it had 25M monthly active […]
I’ve been trying to get a handle on the growth and development of cloud in China. But the four companies that account for about 80% of infrastructure spending (Alibaba, Tencent, Baidu and Huawei) don’t really publish many cloud details in their financials and filings. Fortunately, Kingsoft Cloud has gone public as a stand-alone China cloud […]
Pinduoduo (PDD) has really stood out in digital – both for its ability to break into a market dominated by Alibaba and JD and for the stunning speed of its growth. Founded in 2015, PDD has grown to +800M users in six years. It grew to +$9B in revenue. Upon reaching a +$100B market cap, […]
I first went through the financials of Bilibili in 2018, shortly after it went public. It was a very interesting company because of its rapidly growing usage. But I thought it was basically a weird niche version of YouTube. It had lots of quirky videos about anime, comics and gaming. It had pioneered bullet chat. […]
I have been re-assessing my focus in China tech. The tech giants are now, likely perpetually, on the government’s radar. That will likely create more freedom to grow for the medium companies. Health tech has just moved much higher on my list. Health tech was a big deal in China in 2015-2016. Tons of PE […]
Grab, Gojek and especially Shopee are really getting international attention now. As I’m writing this, Sea Ltd is at +$125B market capitalization. SE Asia has really arrived as a tech market. The investor who always comes to my mind when I think about these companies and SE Asia is Tom Russo. He has been investing […]
In my latest podcast, I teed up the idea that the State is not just a source of risk or uncertainty in China. It can also create tremendous economic value in companies. I referred to it as the “mother of all catalysts”. How to Profit from Politics in China Tech (Asia Tech Strategy – Podcast […]
I was mulling over investing in Expedia during the beginning of the pandemic. It made sense that travel would take a hit for a couple of years. And then it would likely come back. Plus, digital marketplaces are good at scaling up and down. But I didn’t buy as I feel more comfortable with Asia […]