How Bike-Sharing Grows So Fast. And For Free (Pt 2 of 4)

From the beginning of the China bike-sharing phenomenon, I have been struck by how pervasive these companies have become so quickly. Just think of how often you are presented with an image of a Mobike or Ofo bike in China on a daily basis. You see these brightly colored bikes literally thousands of times every […]

My Explanation for the Stunning Power of Mobike, Ofo and China Bike-Sharing (Pt 1 of 4)

Whenever I see a small company having a startling large impact on the world, I look for an engine. I look for something that is amplifying what a relatively small number of people are doing. For example, the engine that rocketed Facebook (and Wechat) upwards was the economics and psychology of social media (plus viral […]


我认为我们目前正处于中国共享单车/单车出租热潮第一阶段的尾声。 现在的共享单车行业有几个比较明显的行业领导者—-摩拜和Ofo. 大量的中国消费者每天都会使用共享单车,且仍呈快速增长之势,这绝对不是一时的消费热潮。 企业的经济前景愈加清晰。租金收入依然会是其主要部分,未来广告收入也会是其中的一部分。例如,有一些ofo自行车上已经投放小黄人广告(如下图)。也许未来它们还会涉足快递和电子商务产业,并获取相应收入。 最后,《摩拜白皮书》(Mobike White Paper)公布出来的数字也很有趣。2017年的(Mary Meeker / Hillhouse report)也非常看好这一行业。

For the Record, Uber Didn’t Lose in China.

Uber’s sale of its China business to local rival Didi Chuxing is often referred to as a surrender. I think the numbers speak for themselves. Uber invested 18 months and about $2 billion in China. They walked away with 17% of DidiChuxing, and therefore 17% of the world’s largest on-demand transportation market. This equity stake […]


中国消费者的规模和财富持续稳步扩大。有关这一经济趋势的研究已很详尽。但人们经常忽略的一点是,这些消费者不断改变的行为正在经常性地影响着整个世界。 突然间,中国消费者心意的转变开始左右全球经济走势。未来几年,这种现象将日益引人瞩目。


上(下)文所示的“集群”地图最初由麦肯锡公司绘制。我认为,它充分说明了现代中国的三个重要特点。 第1点:今天的中国由一系列城市集群组成,而不是一片大陆 今天的中国尚未形成一体化的大陆经济,不像美国那样,拥有无缝连通全国各地的基础设施。未来可能会这样,但目前尚未实现。

Starbucks Doesn’t Have A Serious Competitor in China. It’s Weird.

Uber spent $2B fighting with Chinese DidiChuxing. Adidas has been fighting Chinese Li-Ning and Anta for decades. And Apple is now struggling against multiple rising Chinese competitors,(Xiaomi, Huawei, Oppo, etc.). One thing you can always count on in China: A successful international company will inspire serious domestic competitors. So why doesn’t Starbucks have a serious […]


以下内容摘自《一小时看懂中国消费者》一书。 “罗伯特·拉文(Robert Ravens)是一名澳大利亚农民,也是“博比熊”(Bobbie Bear)的发明者,他住在一个偏远的塔斯马尼亚农场,用田野上多余的薰衣草做出了一种泰迪熊,颜色是明亮的紫色,里面填充了一些小麦和一个暖袋,这种小熊放在微波炉中加热后,会散发出迷人的薰衣草芬芳,抱着它入睡能让人一夜好梦。拉文斯主要在网上和自家的农场礼品店中销售博比熊。

Why Bike-Sharing (Ofo, MoBike) Is Nothing Like Didi and Uber (i.e., Ride-Sharing).

When bike-sharing first emerged, it was proclaimed to be the newest frontier of China’s sharing economy. And following the big fight between Uber China and Didi, it was quickly compared to ride-sharing. But there’s a problem. Bike-sharing is not really sharing. It is not part of the sharing economy.  Bike-sharing does not have a network effect (yet). […]

The Solution to China’s Digital Health Problems? Go Direct to Consumers.

In the past 6 months, there has been a lot of soul-searching by entrepreneurs, venture capitalists and Internet companies about what has gone wrong in Chinese digital health. Thousands of digital health companies have been launched and funded in recent years but there have been few, if any, big successes. And, as detailed in a […]