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为什么成为“中国的联邦快递”之争最近演变成了加速竞争(第一部分)

顺丰快递、圆通快递和其他中国快递公司竞相上市,随着利润的不断萎缩以及竞争威胁的加大,成为“中国的联邦快递”的梦想正迅速转变为资本和功能方面的军备竞赛。 本文介绍了我对这种加速竞争背后的逻辑以及2016年的发展形势的看法,不过首先我要介绍两个背景知识。

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苏富比和佳士得开拓中国艺术西大荒之旅(上)

“2013年9月,历史最为悠久的艺术品拍卖行佳士得在中国艺术品拍卖行举行了第一次拍卖。其实他们从1994年开始就已在上海设置代表处,在香港也已从事拍卖几十年。但这次小型的拍卖会(涉及价值约2500万美元)却是其在内地首次举行的拍卖会。

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为何中国妈妈是全球最重要的消费者?

去年,与中国消费者有关的重大新闻包括疫苗丑闻、食品污染恐慌、海外购房热,以及城市家庭消费的持续增长。 这些新闻是中国女性作为新兴消费阶层的真实写照。具体而言,它们关乎正迅速成为全球最重要消费者的中国妈妈。 对此我有下列五点看法:

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How New Retail is Colliding With Bike-Sharing in China​ (Pt 3 of 4)

In Part 1 and Part 2, I argued there is something new and powerful happening at Mobike, Ofo and bike-sharing in China. These companies and their presence in consumers’ lives have grown too fast. We are witnessing something new and important. My explanation for this is “assets in the wild”. That bike-sharing companies have shown […]

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想要真正的中国国企改革?那就让百威英博和疯狂的巴西人掌管雪花啤酒

目前,百威英博正在进行对SAB米勒1,040亿美元的巨额收购。为此,他们商定出售雪花啤酒49%的股份。这是为获得中国监管机构批准的先发制人的做法。如此一来,准国企华润雪花啤酒就将彻底变为(华润创业所有的)国有企业。 这实在令人扼腕叹息。

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How Bike-Sharing Grows So Fast. And For Free (Pt 2 of 4)

From the beginning of the China bike-sharing phenomenon, I have been struck by how pervasive these companies have become so quickly. Just think of how often you are presented with an image of a Mobike or Ofo bike in China on a daily basis. You see these brightly colored bikes literally thousands of times every […]

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My Explanation for the Stunning Power of Mobike, Ofo and China Bike-Sharing (Pt 1 of 4)

Whenever I see a small company having a startling large impact on the world, I look for an engine. I look for something that is amplifying what a relatively small number of people are doing. For example, the engine that rocketed Facebook (and Wechat) upwards was the economics and psychology of social media (plus viral […]

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摩拜和Ofo会合并吗?

我认为我们目前正处于中国共享单车/单车出租热潮第一阶段的尾声。 现在的共享单车行业有几个比较明显的行业领导者—-摩拜和Ofo. 大量的中国消费者每天都会使用共享单车,且仍呈快速增长之势,这绝对不是一时的消费热潮。 企业的经济前景愈加清晰。租金收入依然会是其主要部分,未来广告收入也会是其中的一部分。例如,有一些ofo自行车上已经投放小黄人广告(如下图)。也许未来它们还会涉足快递和电子商务产业,并获取相应收入。 最后,《摩拜白皮书》(Mobike White Paper)公布出来的数字也很有趣。2017年的(Mary Meeker / Hillhouse report)也非常看好这一行业。

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For the Record, Uber Didn’t Lose in China.

Uber’s sale of its China business to local rival Didi Chuxing is often referred to as a surrender. I think the numbers speak for themselves. Uber invested 18 months and about $2 billion in China. They walked away with 17% of DidiChuxing, and therefore 17% of the world’s largest on-demand transportation market. This equity stake […]