How to Assess Political Risk in China Tech (Asia Tech Strategy – Podcast 92)

This week’s podcast is about political risk in China tech, but really it is about how to think systematically about the role of the State. And about making investment decisions on uncertain terrains.

You can listen to this podcast here or at iTunesGoogle Podcasts and Himalaya.

Here are five investment approaches to uncertain environments.

How to assess the role of the State and political risk:

  • Question 1: Does the State have an active role in this sector?
    • If so, don’t go forward until you can understand it. It is one of three key forces.
    • If no role, then you can view this with a typical industry approach.
  • Question 2: If there is an active role, what are the State’s interests? What is the evidence for this?
    • Is it actively supporting?
    • Is it against against rapid or significant development?
    • Is it just muddy and mixed?
  • Ques 3: If it is actively supporting, then ask how this firm is advancing the State’s interests? How is it working with govt? That is the main thing that matters.

About Giants, Dwarves and the State:


Related articles:

From the Concept Library, concepts for this article are:

  • Role of the State
  • Giants, Dwarves and the State

From the Company Library, companies for this article are:

  • Philip Fisher
  • Ben Graham

Photo by Nick Fewings on Unsplash


I write and speak about digital competition and China / Asia’s leading tech companies.

My book Moats and Marathons details how to measure competitive advantage in digital businesses.

I also run Asia Tech Strategy, a podcast and subscription newsletter on the strategies of China / Asia tech companies.

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