The Sale of Baidu Waimai to Ele.me Symbolizes 3 Big China Internet Trends

Chinese O2O food delivery company Baidu Waimai is being sold to competitor Ele.me. So Ele.me (Alibaba-owned/backed) and Meituan Waimai (Tencent-owned/backed) now dominate the space: Ele.me plus Baidu Waimai will be about 55% of the market. Meituan Waimai has around 41% of the market (iMedia market research). Although they recently announced they are at 54%. Giants […]


Winning and Losing in Bike-Sharing Is Ultimately About Utilization (Pt 4 of 4)

This the fourth and final article on “assets in the wild” as a powerful new economic engine, most visibly manifested in bike-sharing in China. My basic argument in Part 1, 2, and 3 is that the meteoric rise of Mobike, Ofo and other bike-sharing companies is because of their pioneering use of assets that can […]


How New Retail is Colliding With Bike-Sharing in China​ (Pt 3 of 4)

In Part 1 and Part 2, I argued there is something new and powerful happening at Mobike, Ofo and bike-sharing in China. These companies and their presence in consumers’ lives have grown too fast. We are witnessing something new and important. My explanation for this is “assets in the wild”. That bike-sharing companies have shown […]


How Bike-Sharing Grows So Fast. And For Free (Pt 2 of 4)

From the beginning of the China bike-sharing phenomenon, I have been struck by how pervasive these companies have become so quickly. Just think of how often you are presented with an image of a Mobike or Ofo bike in China on a daily basis. You see these brightly colored bikes literally thousands of times every […]

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My Explanation for the Stunning Power of Mobike, Ofo and China Bike-Sharing (Pt 1 of 4)

Whenever I see a small company having a startling large impact on the world, I look for an engine. I look for something that is amplifying what a relatively small number of people are doing. For example, the engine that rocketed Facebook (and Wechat) upwards was the economics and psychology of social media (plus viral […]

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我认为我们目前正处于中国共享单车/单车出租热潮第一阶段的尾声。 现在的共享单车行业有几个比较明显的行业领导者—-摩拜和Ofo. 大量的中国消费者每天都会使用共享单车,且仍呈快速增长之势,这绝对不是一时的消费热潮。 企业的经济前景愈加清晰。租金收入依然会是其主要部分,未来广告收入也会是其中的一部分。例如,有一些ofo自行车上已经投放小黄人广告(如下图)。也许未来它们还会涉足快递和电子商务产业,并获取相应收入。 最后,《摩拜白皮书》(Mobike White Paper)公布出来的数字也很有趣。2017年的(Mary Meeker / Hillhouse report)也非常看好这一行业。



在第一部分,我提出中国不存在新型“共享经济”——这就是中国新企业(如滴滴、摩拜,以及针对篮球、充电宝和雨伞的小物品租赁企业)为什么如此令人困惑。然而,有一件事更加引人注目:在使用和便捷度方面出现了新的数字颠覆者。第一部分的关键点包括: Ÿ忘记“共享经济”一词。 Ÿ转而思考,究竟是“使用经济”还是“占有经济”。 Ÿ新的数字工具和流程(如智能手机)能够对需求或供给,或同时对二者产生颠覆效应。 Ÿ在中国所出现的,是使用和便捷度方面的典型颠覆现象。


3 Questions for the Yum! China Spin-Off (i.e., KFC, Pizza Hut) Going Forward

So Yum! China has been spun-off. A reasonable move that gave them increased owner/management focus. It also gave some activist hedge funds a nice return. And the new spun-off Yum! China entity has released its first 10-Q, which was some interesting reading. But there are now some important challenges going forward. These are widely discussed […]